Mathematical and programming tools to analyse the falling points dispersion for the aircrafts fragments

Space technics and technology


Goncharenko V. I.*, Kan Y. S.**, Travin A. A.***

Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia



Presented are the mathematical and programming tools (MPT) to analyse the dispersion of the aircrafts (AC) fragments over the Earth surface with taking into account the atmospheric breaking and small perturbances of the initial velocity at the passive stage of trajectory (PST). The circular probilistic deviation (CPD) of the AC fragment falling point from an assumed nominal one which is defined without random perturbances is accepted as a performance index of the dispersion. It is shown by using the MPT in a model example that the CPD is increased very much for the nominal trajectories with low initial angles within the broad range of the spherical flight longitude.


aircraft; the perturbed motion; the atmospheric breaking; the ballistic derivatives, баллистические производные; the circular probilistic deviation

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