Integration of scientific and technological development industry forecasts, including rocket and space industry in the long term forecast of the Russian Federation scientific and technological development

Innovation technologies in aerospace activities


Аuthors

Syrin S. A.1*, Tereshchenko T. S.2**, Shemyakov A. O.***

1. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia
2. ,

*e-mail: sergey.syrin@yandex.ru
**e-mail: tatiana.s.abramova@gmail.com
***e-mail: a.shemyakov@gmail.com

Abstract

The great attention is paid in Russia to scientific and technological development of space-rocket and industry in the long-term outlook. Particularly, government documents define the directions of its development up to 2030, including the Russian Federation forecast of scientific and technological development for the period up to 2030 (FSTD-2030), forecast of long term social and economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, the state and federal programs for scientific and technological orientation.

Based on the results of the existing world experience in the development of scientific and technological forecasts development of the space industry we generated requirements to the contents, structure and characteristics of main forecast elements. Proposals are prepared for the use of industry forecasts on a national level.

Also, the authors formulated the list of the main problems concerning the integration of industry forecasts in the long term FSTD-2030 and variants of its solution:

  1. There is no forecast of the space-rocket industry scientific and technological development in the system of state planning.

  2. We found rather poor observability of risks, trends, threats and priorities; and absence of the explicit «product — technology — market» chain.

  3. It is necessary to define the time interval for analysis and forecast updating.

Mechanisms contributing to the harmonization of scientific and technological development forecast results at the sectoral and national level were analyzed within the framework of this research.

Keywords:

sectoral forecasts of scientific and technological development, elements of sectoral forecasts, rocket and space industry, long-term forecast

References

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