Threat assessment and risk management

Aviation technics and technology


Prozorov S. E., Verbin A. V.*

Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation, 20, Kronshtadskiy Bulvar, Moscow, 125993, Russia



The purpose of this paper is to find the relationship of risk, threat and vulnerability protection of an object.

For the degree of the threat to civil aviation estimation it is necessary to solve two fundamental problems: to estimate the threat and deal with the risk.

It is obvious that the establishment of measures necessary to deter high-risk associates with high costs. Consequently, these measures should be realized in the case of maximum necessity. This is the basis of the risk management concept.

Let us specify the concepts necessary to this concept implementation: threat, danger, risk, aviation security risk factor.

It should be understood that the management of threats and risks is a difficult task, which involve not only aviation security special services, but also government agencies.

It is necessary also to understand the factors affecting on the probability of selecting a particular object by an offender.

From the results it obtained in this work a conclusion can be made that the main activity of the aviation security to protect the object against acts of unlawful interference is to reduce its vulnerability due to the adoption of measures increasing the probability of parrying of some kind of unlawful interference committing.

The factors having impact on the degree of protection of the object, include: the effectiveness of special technical means used to ensure aviation safety, efficiency technologies used, the quality of facility personnel. These factors are necessary to enhance the security of the object. The main characteristics of the process of aviation security organization are stability, efficiency, continuity and secrecy.

Without sufficient capacity to prevent threats it is possible, however, to reduce the risk to an acceptable level by creating adequate protection measures and thus providing risk management on the basis of systematically organized protective procedures. The important

Important components of the risk assessment process are control checks to verify aviation safety provision activities compliance to international standards, as well as control of completeness and quality of aviation security measures, taking into account the current level of threat.

Risk management in the socio-economic system, which is characterized by the presence of constraints in terms of available economic resources, is the process of optimal allocation of eligible costs of risk reduction, providing the level of security attainable in economic and social conditions of the existing society, adopted as an acceptable level.


aviation security, risk, risk management, vulnerability, risk factor


  1. Prilozhenie 17 k Chikagskoi konventsii IKAO «Bezopasnost’ - zashchita mezhdunarodnoi grazhdanskoi aviatsii ot aktov nezakonnogo vmeshatel’stva» (Annex 17 of Convention on International Civil Aviation «Safety — protection of international civil aviation against acts of unlawful interference»), International Standards and Recommended Practices. Ninth Edition, 2011, p. 13.
  2. Kuklev E.A., Volynskii-Basmanov Yu.M. Bezopasnost’. Nauka i transport. Grazhdanskaya aviatsiya, 2013, no. 3 (7), pp. 16 — 21.

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