Risk assessment event model of early warning radar development


Boev S. F.1*, Petrakov A. M.2**, Dembitsky D. N.2**, Kazantsev A. M.3, Pankratov V. A.3

1. Group of Companies «RTI», 10/1, 8 Marta str., Moscow, 127083, Russia
2. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia
3. Radiotechnical Institute named after academician A.L. Mintz, 10-1, str. 8 March, Moscow, 127083, Russia

*e-mail: boev@oaorti.ru
**e-mail: nio4@mai.ru


The urgency of developing new approaches to the design and producing of a new generation of early warning radar is stipulated by the contradiction between increasing requirements to the characteristics of a new generation of early warning radar and the development of basic breakthrough technologies for their creation.

Developed by JSC “RTI” methodology for creating an early warning radar of a new generation provides initial decomposition of design specifications imposed by the Customer into major functional tasks. Functional tasks represent the basis which is more stable and repetitive from generation to generation. It allows providing maximum continuity of performed functions during transition from one generation of products to another, and as a consequence increasing unification level of a number of early warning radars. And functional-algorithmic systems are formed on the basis of the functional tasks.

The proposed methodology peculiarity lies in the fact that we introduce a new approach to the development of an early warning radar of a new generation. It is based on the design and implementation of a unified hardware and software design platform for radars.

For functional-algorithmic systems of an early generation radars development, hardware and software functional components (blocks, modules) testing, as well as evaluation of deviation scope of current values of blocks and modules characteristics from those requested by the JSC “RTI” Customer the General Designer test bench was designed. It represents the main and uppermost interlink between theoretical development and practical implementation of the stations.

Let us represent the radar development as a complex multivariate process subjected to variable and often unpredictable effects of different events, a full description and formalization of which is extremely difficult.

The aforesaid formalization is possible when using the methodological apparatus of mathematical statistics, which allows operate with generalized concepts and highlight the most significant risk factors that affect the simulated process characteristics.

The represented event model advantage lie in the fact that the ability to implement operational management of the processes of development of a radar based on joint analytical treatment of the theoretical and experimental results of the process of creating the radar at all stages of the life cycle of its the creation. The deviations of requirements to module parameters from tactical and technical requirements are recorded with General Designer test bench and compared to predetermined characteristics of the functionally-parameter matrix. Deviation of measured parameters is converted to values of the modules readiness factors, which are used for calculations and risk operation monitoring.

Using mathematical event model expressions it is possible to calculate risks of an early warning radar development, successively evaluating modules parameters with General Designer test bench. And according to obtained data take reasoned decision on the necessity of selecting some other module in the case of its nonconformity to performance characteristics.

The presented method formed the basis of mathematical and software development for an early warning radar automated system (ASC) design. One of the main requirements to the ASC, was JSC "RTI" design works management methodological reserve buildup, which fundamental component is General Designer test bench. Efficiency upgrading of working process by th implementation General Designer test bench should lead to radical improvements in design timing data and adjustment of the station systems.


early warning radars, design methodology, risk, mathematical model of the design process, readiness of the project


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