The procedure of formalization of strategies as an element of the methodology for taking into account uncertainty factors in forecasting the indicators of the implementation of space technology development programs


DOI: 10.34759/trd-2022-122-17

Аuthors

Blinov A. V.*, Razumov D. A.**

Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia

*e-mail: alexei_alexei_300@mail.ru
**e-mail: DmitriRazumov@yandex.ru

Abstract

In the process of space technology development programs realization, various factors affect the program activities and implementation indicators. Development of respective technique for the factors considering is required. The forecasts of programs realization are based on the variant basics.

The program realization strategies defining is the initial stage of the uncertainty factors considering while the program indicators forecasting. The realization strategies are being based on the goals and priorities of the State policy of the Russian Federation in the field of space activities.

The two-level system of priorities is applied when defining strategies. The first level is strategic priorities based on the priorities of the State policy of the Russian Federation. The second level is the priority of the event within the strategic priority.

Program activities are being distributed among separate groups, affecting various properties of the program. When forming various options for strategies, a sequential search of the formed groups of program activities is used. The program activities priority is distributed by the Fishburn method according to the number of results achieved.

Possible strategy options are sequentially considered. Program activities are being ranked according to the degree of their impact on the contribution to various properties of the program.

The strategy under consideration will focus the allocated resources on the realization of a group of program activities aimed at achieving one of the properties of the program. The results changing of the program activities realization occurs due to the funding redistribution between the various groups activities. The funds of the lower priority groups of program activities are distributed in favor of the activities of the group with the highest priority.

Formation of groups’ priority of program activities aimed at achieving various tasks and properties is being performed. Further, the priority group's program activities are filled at the expense of the lower priority group, with account for the effect of the uncertainty factors. Funding redistribution of program activities according to the formed options of strategies takes place.

Sequential consideration of the the program realization options will allow selecting the most rational strategy.

Keywords:

factor, strategy, two-level system of priorities, program of creation of space equipment

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