Methodological tools for risk assessments of programs and plans realization for aerotechnics development

Aviation technics and technology


Аuthors

Zherebin A. M.*, Kropova V. V., Rusak . A.

State Institute of Aviation Systems, 7, Victorenko str., Moscow, 125319, Russia

*e-mail: zham@gosniias.ru

Abstract

Basic provisions of an offered approach to risks estimations of programs of aviation techincs realization are stated; the concept of the environment of network modeling as information and program tools of support and support of researches on an risks estimations and decision-making on risk management locates; results of modeling experiments with use of the developed and program realized pilot version of a complex of an assessment and optimization of temporary and cost parameters of network model of the aviation complex design project are given.

Keywords:

risk, indicators of risk, risk management, risk analysis, project management, work breakdown structure, the network model, stochastic modeling, critical path method, the redistribution of the budget.


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