Development of risk management system for flight safety in airline

Аuthors

Makarov V. P.

Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation, 20, Kronshtadskiy Bulvar, Moscow, 125993, Russia

e-mail: valmaka@yandex.ru

Abstract

Accordingly to the aviation experts the growth of air traffic will increase the number of the flight accidents. The development of the flight accident prevention methods is an actual task of the aviation industry. This task can be solved by developing the risk management system for flight safety in airlines.
In this paper the approach for development of the risk management system is considered based on the forecasting of flight accidents in the forthcoming flight, the identification of the most significant hazards and the development of measures for flight accidents prevention. The forecasting method includes modeling of the possible scenarios of flight accidents and their probability estimation. The models of flight accidents can be represented as «trees». The input data for the models is the following: flight date, aircraft reliability information, weather forecast and other. So it’s possible to assess the possibility of flight accident in every flight under specific conditions.
As an example, a model of one of the possible scenarios of aircraft overrun is presented in this paper. There were developed the full models of different types of flight accidents such as controlled flight into terrain, runway excursion, loss of control in flight and other types. The models describe the most typical and shortest scenarios of flight accidents that present the major threat for flight safety.
The developed method of the flight accidents’ forecasting and flight accidents models was introduced in the Automated system of flight accidents’ forecasting and prevention in Volga-Dnepr airline. After trial operation and revision of the system it can be used by other airlines.
Application of the developed method in airlines will reduce the number of flight accidents in Russian aviation.

Keywords:

risk, flight safety, management, forecasting, prevention, flight accident

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