Analysis of possibility to decrease project realization risk of space system in the planned period

Аuthors

Lamzin V. A.^*, Lamzin V. V.^**

Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia

*e-mail: 8465836@mail.ru
**e-mail: 8916846583@mail.ru

Abstract

Methods for complex technical-economic analysis of perspective rocket-space system (RSS) are continuously improved. First of all it is connected with the new directions of its technical and technological development and with change of technical-economic tasks of research. It is also should be underlined that development of such RSS objects as space system (SS) of Earth’s remote sensing (ERS) is carried out in condition of significant indeterminations and connected with great cost. It makes the acceptance of project decisions much harder. Project mistake can lead to the great financial loss and others negative moments. According to this there is a problem of methods creation for project decisions estimation, in which indeterminations would be taken into account and possibility of risk would be minimized in order to provide stability solutions and increase efficiency of space systems exploitation with restricted cost.
The task about SS ERS technical-economic characteristics estimation with its modernization in planned period with indeterminate conditions are considered in presented paper. It is assumed, that indetermination of task solution is connected only with lack of knowledge about project model coefficients. The peculiarity of this problem is counting design-and-engineering decisions (DES) of modified spacecraft (SC) subsystems and adaptive models realization. The methodology for pursuance of the researches is proposed and it allows to carry out the effective specification of SS ERS project decision in condition of modernization in limited planned period with the aim to decrease space system realization risk. Two-level model of development control and method of two-level agreed optimization including guided adaptation of upper level project decisions were applied for solution to given task.
The problem statement of upper and lower development control, two-level agreed SC parameters estimation and algorithms for its solutions were given during the realization of model prototype research devoted to technical-economic characteristics investigation of modified SC being a part of SS ERS. Algorithm for research realization includes solution to upper and lower lever project tasks with execution of project decisions agreement. From one side this approach gives possibility for counting peculiarity of design-and-engineering decisions of spacecraft subsystems without expansion of project model structure, from another side this approach gives possibility to carry out estimation of apparatus subsystems parameters at lower control level (with detailed project model) taking into account dynamic of functional restrictions (mass, size, informativeness and energy). Approach specification gives possibilities to organize multivariate researches (with limited work schedule) and provides optimal project decision-making with the help of expansion of possible solution area. It is assumed that parameters of instrument subsystems module are known and detailed project analysis was carried out at lower level of development control and only for module of target equipments (MTE) taking into account its DES peculiarities. In project models applied for investigation of perspective SC there are underlined key parameters (coefficients of cost dependences). Coefficients are random values and have dispersion. During the solution to model task the statistical method of agreed two-level optimization of SS ERS with presence of random uncontrollable factors are used. Research on solution precision estimation and realization risk of space system project are presented and analyzed.
Application of proposed methodology with appropriate customization of project models allows to investigate influence of DES of SC subsystems on technical-economic characteristics of vehicle as well as on space system including reliability, quantity of system SC and system recovery period, besides, it allows to carry out technical-economic estimation of SC modification variants and evaluate space system realization risk in planned period.

Keywords:

space system, earth observation systems, indetermination, realization program, multilevel process, two-level model

References

1. Matveev Ju.A., Lamzin V.V. Polet, 2009, no. 9, pp. 18-26.
2. Lamzin V.V., Matveev Ju.A. Polet, 2012, no. 1, pp. 40-45.
3. Matveev Ju.A., Lamzin V.V. Polet, 2010, no. 8, pp. 9-17.
4. Matveev Ju.A., Lamzin V.V. Vestnik Moskovskogo aviacionnogo instituta, 2009, vol.16, no. 6, pp. 55-66.
5. Chetyrkin B.M. Statisticheskie metody prognozirovanija (Statistical methods for forecasting). Moscow, Statistika, 1975, 200 p.

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