Simulation for safety risk assessment

Aeronautical engineering


Obukhov Y. V.*, Popov A. S.**, Orlov V. S., Kotova A. O.

State Institute of Aviation Systems, 7, Victorenko str., Moscow, 125319, Russia



The main objective of Safety Management System (SMS) is to provide a reasonable level of safety risks and operational errors, as well as hold them under the control. To solve this problem it is necessary to promptly identify hazards and assess the severity and frequency (probability) of events that may occur. This article preesents a simulation system of air traffic, that allows to perform safety risks analysis using statistical simulation of the air traffic flow in controlled airspace, operations of air traffic controllers (ATC) as well as the impact of hazards, such as faults/failures of technical systems and errors/violations of ATC and aircraft crews. The air traffic flow submodel simulates flights through the airspace area, which executes various parts of their route — en-route flight, climb after take-off from airport, descent. The most detailed submodel of air traffic controller was developed to simulate the execution of routine tasks of ATC, such as aircraft tracking, messaging with aircraft crews and between controllers, environment analisys, conflict detection and resolution. The submodel of air traffic is able to simulate flights in the airspace of ATC sector. Other submodels of navigation system, ground surveillance system, communication system are comparatively simple, they provide an opportunity of faults and failures simulation. Count of collisions, dangerous proximities and violations of separation minima are calculated during simulation. The model alows to perform the safety risk assessments, and evaluation of minimum time between failures for technical systems. Also, it is possible to obtain different indicators of ATC system, such as ATC workload, mean count of airplanes under control, intensity of air traffic, operation delays and others. On the basis of the model studies of safety of flights in creating the St. Petersburg enlarged airspace center have been perfomed. Three types of hazards were considered: changes in the bounderies of sectors, combining radar data from all sources and air traffic control from a single hall. For each sector some different scenarios were used: with current and perspective airspace structure, with real and increased air traffic flows. Three sectors were considered ULLL/South-East, ULLL/North, ULLL/Petrozavodsk. Studies showed, that the reorganization of airspace does not lead to unacceptable risks.


aviation safety, simulation, hazard, risk assessment


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