Forecast analysis of scientific and technological development of Russia, USA, China and the European Union as the leaders in the world aerospace industry

Innovation technologies in aerospace activities


Аuthors

Syrin S. A.1*, Tereshchenko T. S.2**, Shemyakov A. O.1***

1. Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), 4, Volokolamskoe shosse, Moscow, А-80, GSP-3, 125993, Russia
2. ,

*e-mail: sergey.syrin@yandex.ru
**e-mail: tatiana.s.abramova@gmail.com
***e-mail: a.shemyakov@gmail.com

Abstract

The paper presents results of the existing international experience research in scientific and technological forecasting development of the space industry. Seven industry forecasts were analyzed in framework of this research made in the Russian Federation and abroad.

The following documents were chosen for the analysis:

1. Forecast of the Russian Federation scientific and technological development in the long term outlook (till 2030) (Conceptual approaches, trends, forecasts and conditions for implementation).

2. Forecast of scientific and technological trend development with significant applied potential in the long term outlook, presented by institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

3. NASA (2010) National Space Policy of the United States of America. Washington.

4. ASI (2009) Strategic vision 2010-2020.

5. Strategic Options for Chinese Space Science and Technology.

6. NASA Strategic Plan 2014.

7. The ESA Technology Tree Version 3-0 Paris European Space Agency.

Deduction about the features of these forecast documents was made by results of the analysis.

1) A difficult search of risks, trends, threats and priorities should be referred to common features. Also there is no obvious connection «product—technology—market» in the forecasts, and because of that it had to be revealed on the base of the experience in the space industry.

2) There is a little congruence of foreign forecast documents with the Russian development plans (because of differences in the signification: foreign documents are accented on the industry, and the Russian ones — on the economy of the country), but there is a good field for comparison of the space industry priorities and key objectives.

3) American forecasts are based on the USA leadership and enhancing understanding of the achieved results in overall areas of the space science and industry, consolidation and performing the USA as trend and vector legislator of space development, including development of international standards.

4) Italian forecast is interesting with the statement of non repeating of research and development directions conducted in other EU countries, and it links own objectives with coordinating of the European Space Agency activities.

5) Chinese forecast is focused on the development of scientific and technological research and developments and does not infringe the issues of manned cosmonautics.

6) European forecast «Technology tree» is an applied document for compiling the strategy or target program of the industry. This form of forecast is recommended to use as an enclosure to the Russian forecast.

In these research the authors assessed the compliance of the Russian forecasts with the forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2030, with the forecast of longterm social and economic development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2030 and with the state and federal programmes of research and technological orientation.

Keywords:

industry forecast of scientific and technological development, space industry, long-term forecast

References

  1. Osnovnye polozheniya «Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii v oblasti kosmicheskoi deyatel’nosti na period do 2030 goda i dal’neishuyu perspektivu»: [utverzhdennye Prezidentom Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 19 aprelya 2013 g. № Pr-906] (The main principles of the «Russian Federation fundamental state policy in the field of space activities for the period up to 2030 and further»: [approved by the President of the Russian Federation from April 19, 2013 №Pr-906]).

  2. «Osnovy gosudarstvennoi politiki v oblasti ispol’zovaniya rezul’tatov kosmicheskoi deyatel’nosti v interesakh modernizatsii ekonomiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii i razvitiya ee regionov na period do 2030 goda»: [utverzhdennye Prezidentom Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 14 yanvarya 2014 g. № Pr-51] («State policy fundamentals in the field of space activity usage results in the interests of the Russian economy modernization and regions development for the period till 2030»: [approved by the President of the Russian Federation from January 14, 2014 №Pr-51]).

  3. Gosudarstvennaya programma Rossiiskoi Federatsii «Kosmicheskaya deyatel’nost’ Rossii na 2013 — 2020 gody»: [utverzhdennaya postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 15 aprelya 2014 g. № 306]. (The Russian Federation state program «Space activities of the Russian Federation for 2013-2020»: [approved by decision of the Government of the Russian Federation from April 15, 2014 № 306]).

  4. «Federal’naya kosmicheskaya programma Rossii na 2006 — 2015 gody»: [utverzhdena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 22 oktyabrya 2005 g. № 635] («The Federal space program of Russia for the period of 2006-2015»: [approved by the government of the Russian Federation from 22 October, 2005 № 635]).

  5. Gosudarstvennaya programma Rossiiskoi Federatsii «Razvitie promyshlennosti i povyshenie konkurentnosposobnosti»: [utverzhdena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 15 aprelya 2014 g. № 328] (The Russian Federation state program «Industry development and competitiveness increase»: [approved by the government of the Russian Federation from April 15, 2014 № 328]).

  6. O federal’noi tselevoi programme «Issledovaniya i razrabotki po prioritetnym napravleniyam razvitiya nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo kompleksa Rossii na 2014-2020 gody»: [utverzhdena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 21 maya 2013 g. № 426] (About the Federal programme «Research and development on priority directions of the Russian scientific-technological complex development for the period of 2014-2020»: [approved by the government of the Russian Federation from May 21, 2013 № 426]).

  7. «Prognoz nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2030 goda»: [utverzhden rezolyutsiei Predsedatelya Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 3 yanvarya 2014 g. № DM-P8-5]. («The forecast of the Russian Federation scientific and technological development for the period till 2030»: [approved by resolution of the Government Chairman of the Russian Federation from 3 January, 2014 № DM-P8-5].)

  8. Prognoz razvitiya nauchnykh i tekhnologicheskikh napravlenii, imeyushchikh znachitel’nyi prikladnoi potentsial v dolgosrochnoi perspektive, predstavlennyi institutami RAN: [utverzhden rezolyutsiei Predsedatelya Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 3 yanvarya 2014 g. № DM-P8-5] (Development forecast of scientific and technological trends with significant potential in the long term, presented by the institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences: [approved by resolution of the Government Chairman of the Russian Federation from 3 January, 2014 № DM-P8-5]).

  9. «Prognoz dolgosrochnogo sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2030 goda»: [razrabotan Minekonomrazvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii] («The long-term forecast of the Russian Federation social and economic development for the period till 2030»: [developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation].

  10. NASA (2010) National Space Policy of the United States of America. Washington, 2010.

  11. ASI (2009) Strategic vision 2010-2020.

  12. Gregory Kulacki: Strategic Options for Chinese Space Science and Technology, 2013.

  13. NASA Strategic Plan 2014. NP-2014-01-964-HQ.

  14. K. Fletcher: The ESA Technology Tree Version 3-0 Paris European Space Agency. ESA STM-277 2nd ed., October 2013.


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