Methodological approach to the development of a decision support system for the operator of an automated process control system based on dynamic bayesian networks

DOI: 10.34759/trd-2022-125-23

Аuthors

Dorozhko I. V.^*, Gorokhov G. M.^**, Kirillov I. A.^**

Mlitary spaсe Aсademy named after A.F. Mozhaisky, Saint Petersburg, Russia

*e-mail: Doroghko-Igor@yandex.ru
**e-mail: vka@mil.ru

Abstract

The article describes a scientific and methodological approach that can be used in the development of intelligent decision support systems for operators of automated process control systems.

The proposed approach is based on the mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks, as well as the basic concepts and relations of the theory of reliability and technical diagnostics of systems. The initial data are information about the algorithm of the system functioning and the course of the technological process, information about the reliability (structural and logical circuits, failure rates of elements) of technological equipment, as well as diagnostic models linking the types of technical conditions and diagnostic signs. It is proposed to use temporal connections (temporal logical-probabilistic dependencies) in a dynamic Bayesian network to simulate changes in the technical states of elements of technological equipment and describe the dynamics of the technological process. A posteriori conclusion allows combining heterogeneous initial information and incoming new data to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the progress of the technological process and the condition of technological equipment in order for the operator to make an informed decision on the continuation or suspension of the technological process, search for the causes of abnormal situations and the choice of proactive measures.

The implementation of this approach is given on the example of a decision support system for an operator of an automated control system for technological equipment of a booster refueling system, the peculiarity of which, when analyzing reliability, is the need to take into account elements with three incompatible states — operable, failure of the «break» type and failure of the «closure» type, affecting the course of the technological process in different ways. The variants of using the developed decision support system for the current control of the technological process, forecasting and retrospective analysis in the search for the causes of abnormal situations are shown.

Keywords:

decision support system, Bayesian network, automated control system, a posteriori inference

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