Methodological approach to estimating the probability of failure-free operation of complex technical systems taking into account the characteristics of the control system based on the bayesian belief network

DOI: 10.34759/trd-2023-128-22

Аuthors

Kopeika E. A.^*, Verbin A. V.^*

Mlitary spaсe Aсademy named after A.F. Mozhaisky, Saint Petersburg, Russia

*e-mail: vka@mil.ru

Abstract

In developing complex technical systems together with their life cycle follow-up, the required reliability level provision is necessary. This requires developing new approaches associating reliability indicators of complex technical systems (CTS) with the checking system indicators. The article considers the possibility of accounting for the uncertainty of knowledge of the probabilistic data parameters, employed for the decisions substantiation.

The proposed approach and models are based on the basic concepts and ratios of the theory of reliability and technical systems control. The methodological approach is based on the well-known and tested apparatus of the Bayesian approach

A methodical approach, which associates the probability of reliable operation of the complex technical system elements and reliability of complex technical system checking was developed. Analysis of the results allows making conclusion on the degree of the checking process characteristics effect on probability of fault-free operation of the complex technical system.

The proposed d methodological approach may be employed at the CTS design stage, and it provides an opportunity for operating organization information obtaining on the CTS fault-free operation probability when receiving information on the CTS blocks is received, which allows making operative decision on the CTS condition.

The obtained result may be of practical interested for military representatives, state certification authorities, industry representatives and may be employed while formation and justification of reliability requirements in tactical and technical tasks to develop (update) complex technical system. It may be employed as well for accounting for control process characteristics impact on the probability of the fault-free operation of the complex technical system at all stages of its life cycle.

Keywords:

reliability, redundancy, complex technical system, Bayesian Belief Network, reliability function, control system

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