Model of the aviation target destruction process based on non-stationary markov random processes


DOI: 10.34759/trd-2022-123-18

Аuthors

Anan’ev A. V.1*, Ivannikov K. S.2, Kazhanov A. P.1**

1. Air force academy named after professor N.E. Zhukovskii and Y.A. Gagarin, Voronezh, Russia
2. Joint-stock company “Scientific and production enterprise “Radar-mms”, 37, Novosel'kovskaya str., lit. A, Sankt-Peterburg, 197375, Russia

*e-mail: sasha303_75@mail.ru
**e-mail: kazhanov.a.p@mail.ru

Abstract

The analysis of existing approaches to the assessing effectiveness of the aviation destructive means application is carried out in the article. It was shown that during the assessing effectiveness required release determination can be carried out both without and with taking into account the means of enemy air defense, which is substantiated in general. At the same time, the attention is focused on the fact that in case of the probability approach employment in different calculations, the probability in models of aviation destructive means application is assumed to be constant in many sources. The current state of affairs is inconsistent, because as the air strikes are delivered, the error correction is done by the aviation complex crews on the one hand, and the opposing side increases the counteraction by air defense and electronic warfare application, or by withdrawal of the forces and equipment from the attack.

The application of a mathematical model based on non-stationary Markov random processes is proposed with the aim of efficient combat aviation application and taking into account the alterations in the defeat probability assessment. Considering the alteration probability in air strikes cycles in this case consists in its representation as a variable quantity depending on time, which is the main difference between the proposed model and known approaches.

In this article a new approach to the effectiveness assessment of the aviation destructive means application is proposed. That approach takes into consideration alternating the probability of different ground (sea) objects destruction during air strikes cycles. Based on calculations of the obtained differential equations employing numerical methods the comparative analysis of the results acquired by using the known techniques and the new approach proposed was carried out. The account of the alteration probability is carried out by introducing a time dependence of probability, which allows determining required release of aviation destructive means, according to the alternating from cycle to cycle combat application conditions. The proposed mathematical models of the aviation target destruction process based on non-stationary Markov random processes, have significant universality and can be extended to a wide range of tasks.

Keywords:

rational use, aircraft weapons, non-stationary Markov random process

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