A model for assessing the availability factor of electrical cable systems of space vehicles, taking into account the specifics of determining the technical condition

DOI: 10.34759/trd-2023-131-17

Аuthors

Tarasov A. G.^*, Milyaev I. K., Musienko A. S.^**

Mlitary spaсe Aсademy named after A.F. Mozhaisky, Saint Petersburg, Russia

*e-mail: Atol-77@mail.ru
**e-mail: vka@mil.ru

Abstract

The article describes the methods, which are based on the concepts and relationships of probability theory and graph theory, to assess the impact of the switching number in the process of a cable network diagnosing on the availability factor employing the frozen coefficients method. The subject relevancy is being confirmed by the fact that more than 60% of electrical equipment has exhausted its operational life, and, with a view to the dynamics of aging, a more thorough diagnosis of its condition is required.

The proposed methodology is based on the theory of probability and graph theory, as well as the basic concepts and relationships of the theory of reliability and technical diagnostics of systems. The initial data is information on technical condition of the power grid equipment elements of space vehicles in the course of the test control, information on the reliability (structural and logical diagrams, failure rates of elements) of technological power grid equipment, as well as diagnostic models that link the types of technical conditions and diagnostic signs of electrical equipment.

When organizing of the electrical cable system control and restoring its performance, it is necessary to account for the number of switching electrical circuits, affecting significantly the electrical cable system readiness to perform tasks according to its direct purpose. In this regard, the obtained model for the availability factor assessing of the spacecraft electrical cable system allowed determining reduction in the duration of determining the technical condition of the electric cable system by 75%, and the availability factor increase of the spacecraft electric cable system by 1.7% through the adaptive switching application.

The proposed model may be employed by specialists when performing control and diagnostic works of a cable electrical system with a view to increase their efficiency.

The obtained model for the availability factor assessment of a spacecraft electrical cable system allows obtaining an adequate assessment of the availability factor with account for specifics of the technical condition determining, as well as comparing the efficiency various switching methods application for the electrical cable system diagnosing.

Thus, an important point for ensuring the operable state of electrical equipment is adoption of a reasonable decision on its operational technical condition in connection with the individual characteristics of each piece of electrical equipment. The obtained data allow drawing up more reasonable plans for priority measures for the repair and renewal of electrical equipment based on the assessments of specialists working on the ground — experts, while improving the quality of management decisions.

Keywords:

prior distribution, control trials, likelihood function, Bayesian estimate, posterior distribution, estimation accuracy, sampling control

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